REAL ESTATE PRICE INDEX IN VIETNAM
Real estate price index is a statistical indicator that reflects the trend and level of price fluctuations of real estate over time. The real estate price index is an important economic statistical indicator for the state management of the economy and society of each country in order to monitor the fluctuations of the real estate market and the relationship of the real estate market. it with economic growth, capital markets, finance, banking and other monetary, inflation, investment, housing, land and social security policies. Moreover, information about real estate prices, real estate price indexes are also interested and used by investors and consumers.
In the world, recognizing the importance of real estate price index, after the workshop organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Washington DC in October 2003, a chapter on the residential real estate price index is immediately added to the book “Methods for Compiling Financially Sound Indicators(1)”. In 2013, the European Statistics Office (Eurostat), with the cooperation of the International Labor Organization (ILO), the IMF, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United Nations Economic Commission in Europe (UNECE) has republished the “Handbook of Residential Property Price Index (2)”. According to this methodology, more than 100 countries around the world have performed the calculation of the residential real estate price index.
In Asia, the residential property price index has been collected and calculated with different ranges in a number of countries such as China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea. , Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. In which, Japan has been collecting and calculating the residential real estate price index since 1955.
In Vietnam, in recent years, the real estate price index has been researched and calculated by a number of ministries, sectors and enterprises such as the Ministry of Construction (Institute of Construction Economics), Salvill Vietnam Company. However, the scope of calculation of these real estate price indexes only stops at the purpose of serving the management and administration of the ministries and branches and the methodology for information collection and calculation has not been widely published. to multiple users. The Law on Statistics 2015 (effective from July 1, 2016) stipulates the real estate price index, which is chaired by the General Statistics Office in coordination with ministries and branches.
The real estate price index is calculated and announced to meet the following main purposes: (1) Adding to the group of macroeconomic statistical indicators reflecting the signs of the economy serving the public. monetary policy making, inflation targeting management; (2) Serving the statistical work of the System of National Accounts (SNA) in property valuation, excluding price fluctuations of newly invested and built real estate; (3) Assessing market fluctuations domestic real estate market and make regional and international comparisons.
Given the importance of the real estate price index along with the increasing demand for information on real estate, the Department of Price Statistics has proposed to develop a methodology for calculating the national real estate price index. in Vietnam with the main content of data sources and methods of real estate price index calculation as follows:
Data sources
- From survey data: Real estate price survey was conducted in 6 provinces and centrally run cities including: Hanoi, Da Nang, Khanh Hoa, Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong and Dong Nai (later later). This is abbreviated as the Provincial Statistics Office), to collect prices and characteristics of 20 popular representative real estate types in the real estate market such as apartments, villas, townhouses, and other detached houses. ; commercial buildings, office buildings, workshops, factories, factories, warehouses, hotels, resorts, codotel, officetel, shophouse; project land, land in residential areas.
The survey collects the following groups of information: Locally active construction projects by property type and project implementation progress; Successful real estate transactions by property type; General information about the investigation unit includes: Name, address, phone, email; Information on investigated items includes: Type of real estate; characteristics of real estate being traded such as: Area, location, main building materials, direction, year of completion and first handover; Transaction prices; the main purpose of buying real estate; actual use of the property after purchase.
- From administrative data: Provincial Statistics Office contacts the Department of Construction and Tax authorities to make a list of active construction projects and a list of successful real estate transactions. These lists are an important source of information for the General Statistics Office to use as a basis for sample allocation, as well as for the Provincial Statistics Office to select a representative survey unit. Administrative data on the number of real estate transactions and real estate price brackets is the source of information for the General Statistics Office to perform weighting of real estate prices.
- From big data: The General Statistics Office performs big data mining on asking prices, offers to buy and real estate characteristics on 10 reputable news sites (websites).
To perform big data collection on real estate, it is necessary to perform the following main steps:
(i) Building software to collect real estate listings from websites: This is specialized software used to collect real estate listings from websites specializing in real estate. These ads are automatically collected to build an initial database of the following fields:
Website/ Date-month/ Location/ Title/ Content/ Type of bds/ Price/ address/
(ii) Clean the message
- The program will standardize ad content according to user-defined libraries (no limit on quantity). For example:
District = District; Rd = road; ……
Before converting the content, the program has the feature of authenticating with the user when converting the original word to the normalized word. After normalization, the original data is still saved for later retrieval.
- Remove ads posted on many different websites.
(iii) Qualitative analysis of news
Based on the cleaned data, the program analyzes the content of the listing over a certain period of time to calculate the frequency of occurrence of each property-specific phrase. Based on the frequency of occurrence of these characteristics, conduct qualitative analysis to determine the factors that have the greatest influence on the selling and rental prices of each type of property.
(iv) Data Separation
Separation of real estate listings for sale/rental into defined data fields to build a database for real estate price index calculation.
Use the propertys address to calculate the distance from the research property to nearby locations such as schools and hospitals.
Quantification for qualitative variables of real estate characteristics.
We are the only valuation company trusted by the Department of Construction to assign the task of collecting, processing and analyzing data to build a real estate price index in 2013 in Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh. Real estate index is a statistical criterion, reflecting the trend and volatility of real estate. The real estate price index is an important economic statistical indicator for the state management of the economy - society. Moreover, information on real estate prices. Real estate index is of interest to investors and consumers. In particular, the real estate price index is one of the important indicators of countries. Used to analyze fluctuations in real estate values locally and nationally. In order to have a basis in issuing policies to develop stably this potential market. Contributing to solving social-security problems in the locality.
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